The likelihood of War and Economic Interactions: The Case of Korea, 1980-2000
Jun Hyung Yu

Abstract
This study investigates the effect of bilateral political relations on trade using South Korea as a case study. I use bilateral cross-country data to quantify the likelihood of a conflict between any two countries. My empirical results show that the volume of exports and imports is negatively affected by conflicting international political interests even when there is little potential for worsening political relations that can escalate into bilateral conflict.

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